Part two is now up: He’s a Convicted Felon. So Where the Fuck Is the Cell?
Day 209. That’s where we are, as I write this on 24 September 2026, in the war with Iran. Congress never declared it. Congress never authorized it. Congress did vote, in both chambers, to tell the president to stop. He kept going, and the people whose job it is to do something about that shrugged.
So the question isn’t “is Trump bad.” You settled that for yourself years ago. The question is mechanical: how is a president allowed to take this country to war without asking, and why is every brake we built for exactly this situation failing at the same time? Once you watch a man start a war and pay nothing for it, the rest makes sense: the ballroom, the pool, the Kennedy Center, the arch, the oligarch-funded wedding party, the crypto, the trades, the lies.
Same rules as last time. If something is verified by several outlets, I state it flat. If it’s one outlet’s reporting, I name the outlet. If it’s an allegation, I tell you whose. If nobody knows, I say that. I didn’t have to add anger to any of this. It’s already in the record.
The war nobody declared
On 28 February 2026 the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the joint opening strikes. NPR and the IDF say the strike that killed him was Israeli, but it was part of an attack Trump chose to launch. There was no declaration of war and no AUMF. The only Iran authorization anyone even filed, a Republican’s limited one, showed up in May, more than two months into the shooting, and went nowhere.
The legal basis, per the White House’s own War Powers report, was the president’s “constitutional authority as Commander in Chief and Chief Executive.” That’s it. The whole theory is Article II and a shrug.
Trump said it would take “four weeks — or less.” It is month seven. The Pentagon’s official count of American dead is 19 as of 22 September, and officials told the Washington Post the real number is 22 or 23. The human rights group HRANA counts 3,636 Iranians dead, 1,701 of them civilians. The Pentagon puts the bill at about $44 billion. Gas hit a record $4.56 national average in May. The ceasefire collapsed in July, and the blockade is still on.
Then there’s Minab. On day one, a strike hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school. A preliminary Pentagon inquiry found a US missile likely hit it and blamed stale targeting data. Iranian officials put the dead above 150, about 120 of them children. Those are Iran’s figures. Trump first blamed Iran and claimed Iran had Tomahawks. Iran isn’t on the list of countries allowed to buy one. On 17–18 September a UN fact-finding mission found “reasonable grounds” that the US committed a war crime there. It also found the school was struck more than once, which is evidence it was the intended target and not a stray. The White House’s reply was that the UN Human Rights Council spouts “unserious nonsense.”
Since September 2025 the military has been blowing up boats it says are running drugs. At least 230 people have been killed in roughly 70 strikes. No public evidence has been offered that any particular boat carried drugs. In the first strike, a follow-up hit killed two survivors clinging to the wreckage. On 3 January, Operation Absolute Resolve snatched Nicolás Maduro out of Caracas; 32 Cubans were among the dead. The Justice Department’s own legal memo said the raid “does not rise to the level of war in a constitutional sense.” The Senate tried to leash it, and the resolution died 51–50 when JD Vance broke the tie.
In June, Axios asked Trump what limits the war had taught him. “There are no limits.”
So far he’s been right. That’s the whole fucking problem.
Why the War Powers Act is a dead letter
Article I gives Congress the war power. The 1973 War Powers Resolution was written to stop exactly this: the president reports within 48 hours and pulls out within 60 days unless Congress signs off.
Day 60 was 1 May. That day Trump told Congress that “the hostilities that began on February 28, 2026, have terminated,” because of an April ceasefire, while the Navy was blockading Iranian ports. Senate Democrats say a secret Justice Department opinion dated that same day backs him up. Thirty-eight of them have demanded to see it, and as far as I can find, it has never been released. When the fighting resumed, Trump wrote on 10 July that military action had “formally restarted,” which amounts to claiming a fresh 60 days. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie: “They’re literally trying to steer around it by pretending you can play stop-start and restart the clock.”
Congress did try. In March the House failed 212–219. On 3 June it passed a concurrent resolution ordering withdrawal, 215–208, and on 23 June the Senate adopted it 50–48 with Republicans Collins, Murkowski, Paul and Cassidy voting yes. It was the first concurrent war-powers resolution ever to clear both chambers. Trump called it “meaningless.” The next day he went after GOP senators at a Capitol lunch and called Cassidy a “lunatic.” Cassidy told him the war “was supposed to last four weeks. It’s lasted four months.” Then Vance and Witkoff gave a briefing, Cassidy switched to no, Paul voted present, and the Senate blocked a separate binding measure 47–50–1. The House has passed Iran resolutions twice more since: 214–208 in July and 220–204 in September, with seven Republicans in the second. By the end of July, Democracy Now counted 13 Senate votes this year on ending the war. The only resolution that passed was the one with no teeth.
None of it stops anything, because there are four trapdoors.
The cheap tool doesn’t bite. A concurrent resolution never goes to the president. The statute says it binds, but since INS v. Chadha (1983) it has been widely considered unenforceable, and the White House said it had “no force of law” and ignored it.
The real tool needs a supermajority. A joint resolution can be vetoed, and overriding takes two-thirds of both chambers. No war-powers resolution has ever survived a veto. The last attempt was over Soleimani in 2020, and the override died 49–44.
The courts won’t touch it. Suits by individual lawmakers get dismissed on standing and “political question” grounds, as they did over Kosovo and Libya. Reps. Larson and Meeks filed a resolution directing the House to sue, but it needs a majority to pass. As far as I can find, not one lawsuit over the Iran war has actually been filed.
Congress keeps paying. In July the House voted 216–214 for a $95 billion budget package with $60 billion for the Pentagon. Political scientist Jasmine Farrier pointed out that Congress has to “vote twice… to stop something it never approved in the first place.”
The rot is bipartisan and old: Korea, Kosovo, Libya. But Harold Koh, who wrote Obama’s Libya “not hostilities” theory, calls this war “unlawful under both US and international law.” The difference is scale: a months-long war that killed a head of state and kept going after both chambers said stop.
Every brake, cut
Immunity. Trump v. United States (2024, 6–3) gave presidents absolute immunity for core constitutional acts and presumptive immunity for all other official acts. Commanding the military sits at the core. That’s my analysis, not a ruling on this war. But the threat of prosecution after office used to be a deterrent, and it’s gone.
The math. Republicans hold the Senate 53–47, and conviction takes 67. The House has held three impeachment floor votes and tabled all three: 344–79, 237–140, and 232–147 on 15 September. Democratic leadership voted “present” on the last two.
Retribution. Cassidy lost his primary on 16 May, finishing third, and Trump posted that “his political career is OVER!” Massie lost his three days later, in the most expensive House primary ever run. Cassidy cast his June yes vote after he had already lost, and he still folded the next day. The Republicans who break ranks are mostly on their way out.
The watchdogs. On day four, 17 inspectors general were fired by email without the 30 days’ notice the law requires. Judge Ana Reyes held all 17 firings unlawful, but the eight who sued didn’t get reinstated, because he could simply fire them again with notice.
Justice. NOTUS reports the Public Integrity Section went from 36 attorneys to 2. Todd Blanche, Trump’s former criminal defense lawyer, was confirmed Attorney General 50–49 in August.
Contempt. Judge Boasberg found probable cause for criminal contempt over deportation flights that ignored his order. An appeals panel shut the inquiry down 2–1.
Every brake got tested this year. Each one bent or broke.
The impunity you can see from the street
The East Wing. In July 2025 Trump said the ballroom “won’t interfere with the current building.” In October crews leveled the whole 1902 East Wing, and PolitiFact rated it a “Full Flop.” The Washington Post obtained a contractor summary pricing the ballroom at $600 million, only $293 million of it private. It also reported $352 million redirected from the Secret Service budget. Trump had promised “not one dime of government money.” The private share comes from 37 named donors, from Amazon, Apple and Lockheed to Coinbase and Tether; YouTube’s $22 million came out of settling Trump’s own lawsuit. Public Citizen found the donors took in $279 billion in federal contracts over five years (Public Citizen is also counsel in the arch lawsuit, so weigh it accordingly).
Trump fired all six Fine Arts commissioners, and his replacements approved the ballroom 6–0. Judge Richard Leon blocked it: “He is not, however, the owner!” The D.C. Circuit agreed that this is “for Congress to decide and is not a matter for Executive self-help.” On 31 August the Supreme Court stayed that 5–4, holding that the National Trust likely lacks standing. Chief Justice Roberts dissented and called the project likely unlawful. Keep this straight when you argue: no court has held the ballroom legal. The majority held that nobody gets to ask. And per a Washington Post investigation, when the first architect raised fire codes, Trump told him “I am the code.” That’s one outlet’s reporting, and the White House denies it.
The pool. Not a swimming pool. The pool is the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, repainted “American flag blue.” It was pitched at about $1.8 million and a week or two of work. It has run past $16 million on a $14.7 million no-bid contract. Trump blamed vandals. The contractor admitted its own errors. Trump’s own U.S. Attorney, Jeanine Pirro, dropped the vandalism charges and said Interior had given her “less than fulsome information.”
The Kennedy Center. In February 2025 Trump purged the board, made himself chairman and declared “NO MORE DRAG SHOWS.” More than 40 artists and companies walked, from Hamilton to the Washington National Opera. The board bolted his name onto the facade, and in May Judge Christopher Cooper ruled that “Congress gave the Kennedy Center its name, and only Congress can change it,” and the name came down. On 15 September the board voted to close the building immediately. Trump said the renovation “will not take place” without his name and that the building will “end up being ripped down.” He was photographed holding a printout that read “Kennedy Center DEMOLISHED.” A federal judge now requires 30 days’ notice before anyone takes a wrecking ball to a memorial to a murdered president. Sit with the fact that we needed that order.
The arch. The plan is a 250-foot triumphal arch at Memorial Circle, more than twice the height of the Lincoln Memorial. Asked who it was for, Trump said: “Me.” He said it was “fully financed.” The National Endowment for the Humanities put $15 million of public money into it. It has preliminary approval from the planning commission and no final approval. On 20 September Trump announced the arch will be a “Military Complex/Triumphal Arch” for drones and snipers, “at the strong request of the United States Military.” He named no official and no branch.
The wedding
This needs precision, because Trump’s whole defense depends on you being sloppy about it.
ProPublica broke it on 14 September, and the couple confirmed the core of it the same day. Umar Kremlev is a Russian businessman who runs the International Boxing Association. Putin presented him with the Order of Friendship in April 2026, and per ProPublica he traveled in Putin’s delegation to China days before the wedding. In 2024, according to Meduza, he bought Russia’s biggest car dealer from the state at about a third of its pre-war value. According to ProPublica, Kremlev bankrolled Don Jr.’s island wedding celebration in the Bahamas: the reception island, the guests’ lodging there, and the fireworks. He did not pay for the wedding itself. The legal marriage was on 21 May in West Palm Beach, and ProPublica reports a separate vows ceremony in the Bahamas that Kremlev didn’t attend and apparently didn’t fund. ProPublica puts the island at about $100,000 a night and the fireworks at about $70,000. The couple has never confirmed an amount. They did confirm the gift. Bettina Trump wrote that “our dear friend Umar very generously hosted two incredible nights of celebrations for us AFTER our wedding,” and called it “an extraordinarily generous wedding gift.”
Trump, in full: “I have no idea who Umar is, never heard of him, and he didn’t pay for Don and Bettina’s wedding, which took place at a totally different location, and on a different day. It was an ‘afterparty’ given in their honor. Not a big deal! I was not present at the party.” Notice that he concedes the party. Four days later he said Don Jr. “paid them back,” and then that Don was “paying it back.” He offered no evidence, and neither the White House nor the Trump Organization has produced any. I can’t tell you the money wasn’t repaid. I can tell you nobody has shown that it was, and that the couple called it a gift.
Attorney General Blanche: “Am I investigating what?”
Republican Sen. John Curtis: “A toaster is a wedding gift. A private-island party paid for by a Putin-connected oligarch is something else.” He asked Judiciary to subpoena Don Jr., and Hunter Biden along with him. Tillis called the party “colossally bad judgment, at best,” and Cornyn backed Curtis. Both leave the Senate in January. GOP Sen. Bernie Moreno pushed back, Grassley says “it takes time,” and the Deseret News calls the GOP split. On the House side, Oversight’s top Democrat, Robert Garcia, has opened an investigation. No quid pro quo is documented, and I’m not alleging one. The problem is the one retired FBI counterintelligence official Frank Montoya Jr. described to ProPublica: “If I’m paying for your wedding, at some point, you’re going to owe me something.”
The crypto
Trump’s own disclosure shows about $1.4 billion in crypto income for 2025. Reuters found the family made about $2.3 billion from four crypto ventures, matched by roughly $2.25 billion in investor losses. Nansen counts 988,905 $TRUMP wallets under water, about $3.81 billion in all, paper losses included. The top 220 holders spent about $148 million, per Inca Digital, to win a dinner with the president.
Four days before the inauguration, a vehicle backed by Sheikh Tahnoon, the UAE’s national security adviser, bought 49% of World Liberty Financial for $500 million. The WSJ says $187 million of it went up front to Trump-family entities. About four months later the US approved $1.4 billion in arms sales to the UAE, and later that year advanced AI chips for the UAE firm G42. Those sales are real. The claim that they were linked to the stake is Senate Democrats’ allegation, and nobody has proven it. An Abu Dhabi fund chaired by Tahnoon settled a $2 billion Binance investment in World Liberty’s USD1 stablecoin, and Forbes found Binance holding 87% of USD1. In October 2025 Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, then told 60 Minutes: “I don’t know who he is.” Former pardon attorney Liz Oyer: “The influence that money played in securing this pardon is unprecedented.” Binance and Zhao’s lawyers say any link between the Abu Dhabi deal and the pardon is “without foundation.”
Trump’s SEC dropped or closed at least a dozen crypto cases. The OCC gave World Liberty a conditional bank charter, and the Tahnoon-backed group owns 49% of its holding company. Forbes puts Trump at about $7 billion, $2.7 billion richer than at the 2024 election, though he’s down about $300 million this year. The White House: “Neither the President nor his family has ever engaged” in conflicts of interest.
The trades
Nobody has been charged over the tariff-day trades or the oil trades.
On 9 April 2025 at 9:37 a.m., Trump posted “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT.” At 1:18 p.m. he announced the tariff pause. Trump Media rose 22.67%, and his stake gained about $415 million that day. Six senators asked the SEC to investigate, and there has been no public sign that it did.
During the war, DOJ and the CFTC opened a probe into four oil-futures bets totaling more than $2.6 billion. Each one bet on falling oil minutes or hours before a market-moving announcement:
— $500 million-plus about 15 minutes before Trump’s 23 March “productive conversations” post
— about $960 million hours before the 7 April ceasefire
— $760 million about 20 minutes before Iran said Hormuz was open on 17 April
— $430 million about 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire on 21 April
Count gasoline and diesel too and Reuters puts oil bets placed ahead of Iran war news at about $7 billion. As of the latest reporting I can find, no charges have been filed and no traders named.
Then there’s his own account: 3,642 trades in Q1 2026, about 60 per trading day. Fortune found that on 23 March, the same day as his de-escalation post, it bought Exxon, Chevron, Phillips 66, Lockheed and General Dynamics. On ceasefire day it sold up to $1 million of Exxon. The filings give dates, not times, so all I can say is “the same day,” and one portfolio manager told CBS the Exxon sale looked like “classic tax-loss harvesting.” Warren and Rep. Garcia flagged more than 30 trades that came just before favorable government action or Trump’s praise. That inference is their allegation. The Trump Organization says third parties run the accounts and he gets “no advance notice.”
The only American charged so far with betting on military secrets is an Army master sergeant who, per DOJ, turned about $33,000 in Polymarket bets on the Maduro raid into about $410,000. He’s charged, not convicted. So the soldier DOJ says made four hundred grand is in front of a judge, and whoever placed $2.6 billion in oil bets is still just under investigation.
The lies
Nobody keeps the full count anymore. The Post logged 30,573 false or misleading claims in the first term. Its fact-checker, Glenn Kessler, left in 2025 and says nobody keeps the comprehensive list now, “but I’m sure he’s keeping the same pace.” So I’ll stick to the war.
He launched it over “imminent threats.” Days later his own officials told congressional staff the intelligence didn’t show Iran preparing to strike first. The IAEA said “we don’t see a structured program to manufacture nuclear weapons,” and the Arms Control Association came to the same conclusion. In June 2025 he said Iran’s program was “obliterated.” On the day he started this war he said Iran had “attempted to rebuild” it. So a program he told you was gone became the reason for a new war eight months later. In April he declared “Total and complete victory. 100%,” and the regime survived with Hormuz in its grip. CNN counted 38 times he said a deal was imminent. NBC counted 32 times he said the war was over or nearly over.
The ledger
Findings and allegations stay in separate piles. Mixing them is how you lose an argument you should win.
Found unlawful by a court or GAO:
— The IG firings.
— The IEEPA tariffs (Supreme Court, 6–3).
— The birthright-citizenship order (Supreme Court, 6–3).
— Illegal impoundment of appropriated money, in at least seven GAO decisions in 2025 (two partial; GAO cleared him in several others).
— The Los Angeles deployment, a “serious violation of the Posse Comitatus Act” per Judge Breyer (stayed on appeal).
— The Portland Guard deployment, struck down by Trump-appointed Judge Immergut.
— The Abrego Garcia prosecution, dismissed as vindictive.
— All four law-firm executive orders.
— The Harvard funding freeze, where the judge said antisemitism was a “smokescreen.”
— The Kennedy Center renaming.
Defying courts: AP found judges ruled the administration was violating orders in at least 31 lawsuits, plus more than 250 instances in individual immigration cases. The Alien Enemies Act case was dismissed as moot because the government had already removed the men by other means, so nobody ever ruled on whether invoking the Act was legal.
Rules rewritten after he broke them: he fired an FTC commissioner in defiance of 90 years of precedent, and the Supreme Court then overruled the precedent.
Norms, no court required:
— Day-one clemency for about 1,500 January 6 defendants, police-assaulters included.
— A public post to “Pam” naming Comey, Schiff and Letitia James: “JUSTICE MUST BE SERVED, NOW!!!” Comey was indicted five days later. Both his case and James’s were dismissed because the prosecutor was unlawfully appointed, and grand juries twice refused to re-indict James.
— A $230 million claim against his own Justice Department.
— About two dozen generals and admirals pushed out, per Axios. That includes the JAGs, whom Hegseth called potential “roadblocks,” and the Army chief of staff, removed mid-war.
— An FCC chair telling a network “the easy way or the hard way,” and Kimmel off the air within hours. He was back within a week, after the backlash.
— A $400 million 747 from Qatar, taken without Congress’s consent. The emoluments question has never been tested in court, so it stays an allegation.
— On a third term: “No, no I’m not joking.”
Who’s actually fighting back
This is the part the despair crowd skips: most of the country isn’t putting up with it.
The public. Trump’s approval sits around 38% in the averages and 33% in Verasight’s latest, a series low. Opposition to the Iran war averages 59% to 33%. March’s No Kings day ran 3,300-plus events in all 50 states. Organizers claim 8 million. I can’t find an independent count, so treat that number as theirs.
The courts, when they’re let in. Democratic attorneys general count 55 wins in 67 decided cases, by their own association’s tally. This week a federal judge ordered White House press credentials restored to CNN, MS NOW and Politico. He said he was skeptical that national security was “the actual motivation.”
The ones who didn’t fold. Four law firms sued and won in district court, while nine others pledged about $940 million in free legal work. Harvard fought and won at trial level, while Columbia paid $221 million. Seven House Republicans voted to end the war, a record, and four GOP senators did too, once. Curtis wants Don Jr. under oath.
So why the fuck are we putting up with it?
Most of us aren’t. The ones putting up with it are a Senate majority, a House majority, and a Supreme Court majority that decided the people suing over the ballroom probably aren’t even allowed to ask. Every brake in this post comes down to one question: who holds the gavel?
That can change. The midterms are 3 November. Democrats lead the generic ballot by roughly 7 to 10 points depending on the poll, and forecasters give them roughly 68–80% odds for the House and 55–59% for the Senate. That’s a lean, not a lock, and redistricting is worth about ten seats to the GOP. A new majority gets real tools:
— Subpoenas nobody can slow-walk.
— The purse strings on a war Congress never authorized.
— A vote on the House lawsuit Larson and Meeks already drafted, which at least takes a run at the standing problem that sank lawmakers’ suits before.
— Impeachment hearings with witnesses under oath.
— A war-powers law with teeth, so no president of either party can pull the “hostilities terminated” stunt again.
The founders put the war power in Congress because they didn’t trust one man with it. They were right, and we now have 209 days of proof. Congress isn’t going to take that power back by itself. Somebody has to send it different members. No Kings organizers are turning 17 October into an early-vote push. Be one of the bodies. Go.
Sources
Lawfare — White House submits Iran War Powers report to Congress
PBS NewsHour — Trump claims Iran hostilities “have terminated”
CBS News — Trump says Iran military action “formally restarted”
NPR — Senate joins House on Iran war powers resolution
NBC News — Senate Republicans reject war powers measure after Trump–Cassidy clash
CNN — UN mission finds grounds for war crime in Minab school strike
Washington Post — Pentagon adds a death to Iran war tally
Lawfare — OLC opinion on the Maduro capture
The Conversation — Why the 60-day deadline doesn’t constrain presidents
CNN — Judge rules IG firings unlawful but won’t reinstate
The Hill — Ballroom cost hits $600 million
Law Dork — Supreme Court stays ballroom injunction 5–4
NPR — Reflecting Pool vandalism charges dropped
NBC News — Judge orders Trump’s name off the Kennedy Center
NPR — Trump says arch will be a “Military Complex”
ProPublica — Russian oligarch bankrolled Trump Jr. wedding celebration
ABC News — Trump claims Don Jr. repaid the oligarch
Bloomberg — Trump’s $1.4 billion crypto haul
CNBC — UAE “spy sheikh” stake in Trump crypto firm
ABC News — DOJ probing $2.6 billion in oil trades tied to Iran news
Fortune — Trump’s brokerage trades during the Iran war
CNN — 38 times Trump said an Iran deal was close
AP via WTOP — The administration’s defiance of lower-court orders
GAO — Impoundment Control Act decisions
Strength In Numbers / Verasight — September 2026 poll